Description

This work estimates the impact of different policies of Interest Rate Ceilings on the proportion of families excluded from credit access in Chile. Using the default probabilities estimated by a probit model based on demographic variables and financial debt-load, I simulate the distribution of risk-adjusted interest rates of Chilean households for different shocks to income and employment. The results imply that an interest rate ceiling factor of 0.35 would exclude 11% to 18% of the families from credit access, depending on the severity of the shock. This exclusion is heavily concentrated on the poorest income quintiles.