The Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec) is an estimate that summarizes the activity of the different branches of the economy in a given month, at prices from the previous year; its inter-annual variation constitutes an approximation of GDP evolution. The calculation of the Monthly Economic Activity Index is based on multiple supply indicators, which are weighted by the share of economic activities in the previous year’s GDP.

The Monthly Economic Activity Index is published on the first business day of each month taking into account a lag of 31 days in relation to the month being measured. In addition to this, a breakdown is published which distinguishes mining from all other activities —mining and non-mining series—, as well as the series at factor cost. All series are presented in both original and seasonally adjusted figures.

Consistent with the established publication policy, the Monthly Economic Activity Index series are revised along with the quarterly and annual national accounts.

January 2023’s monthly index of economic activity, Imacec

According to preliminary information, last January the Imacec rose 0.4% compared with the same month a year before (figure 1). The seasonally adjusted series rose 0.5% with respect to the previous month and dropped 0.3% in twelve months. The month came with the same number of working days as January 2022.

The Imacec result was explained by services and mining activity, which was partly offset by a drop in trade (figure 2). The seasonally adjusted Imacec increase was determined by its every component except Other goods (figure 3).

The non-mining Imacec posted a decrease of 0.2% in twelve months and, in seasonally adjusted terms, grew 0.4% from the previous month.

Imacec analysis by activity
 

1. Goods production

Goods production grew 1.6%, driven by the performance of mining, which increased 4.0%. Other goods and the manufacturing industry grew by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the production of goods showed no variation from the previous month, explained by the opposing performances of the fall in Other goods and the increase in mining and manufacturing.

2. Trade

Trade activity posted a decline of 3.2% led by retail, especially lower sales of supermarkets, department stores and specialized foods and beverage establishments. Wholesale trade showed no change, as the increase in food sales was offset by a fall in its other components.

Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted figures showed an increase of 1.1% with respect to the previous month, explained by car sales and wholesale trade.

3. Services

Services increased by 1.6%, a result mainly explained by the performance of personal services, followed by entrepreneurial services.

In seasonally adjusted figures, services posted an increase of 0.7% compared with the previous month, owing mainly to personal services.

In accordance with the calendar of National Accounts publication, our 2022 GDP estimate, together with revisions to the years 2020 y 2021, will be released next 20 March. The Imacec series will be revised to make them coherent with the new figures.