Monetary Policy Report June 2022

Monetary Policy Report June 2022

Inflation in Chile has continued to escalate, hitting its highest level in decades. The main factor behind this trend is still the major increase in demand during 2021. In recent months, however, the impact of strong global cost pressures has deepened due to higher commodity, energy, and food prices. This occurs in a scenario where difficulties in global distribution chains have continued, the peso remains depreciated, and the activity gap is still positive. The short-term inflation outlook has risen considerably, responding to this combination of factors. In line with expectations, economic activity began to adjust in the first quarter, despite a demand composition where private consumption remains intense while investment is dwindling. In the medium term, the adjustment of macroeconomic imbalances remains the central element for inflation to converge to 3% within two years. The high level of inflation and the greater persistence of its fundamentals have called for a more contractionary monetary policy to achieve such convergence, which has led the Board to raise the MPR to 9%. The Board estimates that to ensure the convergence of inflation to 3% within the two-year horizon, additional adjustments to the MPR will be needed, although smaller in magnitude. Risks remain high, nonetheless, particularly given the high level and stubborn persistence of inflation.

What does this MP Report tell us?

Inflation has risen significantly in Chile.

Inflation has risen significantly in Chile.

The prices increase have been generalized in many countries, highlighting that of food.

The prices increase have been generalized in many countries, highlighting that of food.

Our economy is subject to important risks that must be taken into account.

Our economy is subject to important risks that must be taken into account.

The Central Bank will remain vigilant of the evolution of inflation, always focusing on the welfare of the people.

The Central Bank will remain vigilant of the evolution of inflation, always focusing on the welfare of the people.

Inflation has risen significantly in Chile.

  • The main cause of rising inflation in our country continues to be the excessive increase in spending in 2021, which put strong pressure on the prices of goods and services.
  • In recent months, there has been the added impact of the significant increase in costs worldwide, associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the persistent problems in global supply chains. In addition to this, the Chilean peso has weakened.
  • This has caused our country’s inflation forecast for this year be revised upward significantly.
  • Soaring inflation is also being felt considerably in the rest of the world.

The prices increase have been generalized in many countries, highlighting that of food.

  • In several countries, inflation has risen to levels not seen in decades. Price increases are observed in all types of goods and services.
  • Worth noting is what is happening with the prices of foods, various commodities, and fuels.
  • These products have seen very substantial increases. In some cases, such as wheat and oil, prices have risen more than 50% in recent months. Moreover, projections point to prices not decreasing anytime soon.
  • Rising inflation has prompted central banks in several countries to start raising monetary policy rates more sharply (MPR).

Our economy is subject to important risks that must be taken into account.

  • Inflation is affecting every household and it is very important to analyze spending decisions carefully in order to keep the family budget in check.
  • It is very important to do the accounts properly because there are risks. Interest rates are high and, whenever possible, money is better saved than spent.
  • The future economic outlook is also challenging. The Chilean economy needs to resolve the large imbalances that accumulated during 2021.
  • The external scenario is complex too, due to the uncertainty caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the way movements in the world financial markets may affect our economy.

The Central Bank will remain vigilant of the evolution of inflation, always focusing on the welfare of the people.

  • The Central Bank has raised the interest rate very significantly.
  • This generates the conditions that will allow bringing inflation down to low levels, where it was until a year ago.
  • Lowering inflation is a priority task for the country. High inflation is very costly for households, especially the more disadvantaged, who find it increasingly harder to make ends meet.
Presentations
Informe de Política Monetaria Junio 2022. Rosanna Costa, Presidenta
Conferencia de prensa Ipom junio 2022