Co-authors: Joel Castillo
Affiliation: Banco de México
Date and time: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 14:30 (Santiago, GMT-04:00)
Location (Hybrid Seminar):

• Auditorio at the Central Bank of Chile, Morandé 115, second floor.
• Online meeting

Registration: seminarios@bcentral.cl

Abstract: How do extreme-weather events affect local labour markets in an emerging economy? Across 39 Mexican metropolitan areas, we estimate the response to four hazards — hot and cold (temperature) and wet and dry (excess- and deficit-precipitation) anomalies — using quarterly labour-force microdata and panel local projections. "Extreme weather" is not a single shock: the hazards move employment, informality, participation, and wages in different directions and onto different workers. Heat raises informality and, later, unemployment; cold contracts labour demand, lowering participation and wages as discouraged workers exit; dry anomalies push labour supply into informal work; and wet anomalies — beneficial precipitation, distinct from destructive floods — modestly improve outcomes. The burden falls disproportionately on younger, female, and less-educated workers, and preliminary evidence suggests responses vary with cities' baseline climate, consistent with adaptation. The results open the labour market interior of climate-driven output losses, showing that the margin through which the shock is absorbed — informality, unemployment, participation, or wages — is itself hazard-specific.