Working Papers N° 130: Trends and Cycles in Real-Time
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Working Papers N° 130: Trends and Cycles in Real-Time
Autor: Rómulo Chumacero , Francisco Gallego
Description
This paper compares the results of applying several detrending methods to the Chilean monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) that arise from using real-time data sets. We show that data revisions are extremely important and that they can lead to systematically inconsistent estimates of the trend component. Furthermore, most of the fil ters commonly used to detrend time series in practice, are highly unstable and unreliable for end-of-sample estimation.
Working Papers N° 130: Trends and Cycles in Real-Time
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