Autores: Alejandra Inzunza y Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747225000058
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Chile enacted three exceptional laws allowing withdrawals from affiliates’ pension accounts. We analyze how these withdrawals affected pension savings and the projected retirement income of affiliates and their households, finding that lower-income households withdrew a higher percentage of their savings. Simulations of worker contributions until retirement show an average reduction of 21% in contributory pensions, but increased non-contributory pension benefits reduce the average total income loss to 8%. Under a no-reform scenario, these withdrawals and higher non-contributory pensions may imply fiscal costs around 15.8% of the pre-pandemic gross domestic product (GDP). The current pension reform should reduce it to 12.4% of pre-pandemic GDP.

Autores: Enzo A. Cerletti, Magdalena Cortina, Alejandra Inzunza, Felipe Martínez y Patricio Toro
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2025.100175
Abstract:
The policies adopted in Chile to mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic stand out for their magnitude: they implied an increase in the liquidity of the household sector of 29 % of the 2019 GDP in an interval of 18 months. We use the 2021 Chilean Household Financial Survey to assess the impact of the pandemic and the massive liquidity shock generated by the policy response on financial decisions and the financial situation of Chilean households. We find that households used the additional liquidity to recover their consumption levels, reduce debt, and accumulate liquid assets. Once the support measures were phased out, households retained buffers, allowing them to maintain a high level of expenditure despite unfavorable macroeconomic changes. Finally, we document that the ultimate effect of the implemented policies was a deterioration in households' financial conditions, particularly for those with lower incomes.

Autores: Benjamín García, Mario Giarda y Carlos Lizama
Doi: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12580/8026
Abstract:
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Chilean government provided unprecedented economic assistance to households. Direct fiscal transfers through stimulus checks amounted to nine percent of the country’s GDP. Aditionally, three times during the period, policymakers allowed for the possibility of withdrawing up to ten percent of the workers’ individual pension accounts savings. This policy provided households with access to additional resources equivalent to 19 percent of GDP. Overall, the extra liquidity provided amounted to 28 percent of GDP, thus becoming Chile’s most extensive support package in recent history.

Autores: Benjamín García, Mario Giarda, Carlos Lizama e Ignacio Rojas
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2024.100125
Abstract:
Households in emerging economies are subject to significant income risk and have low access to financial markets. Leveraging multiple administrative microdata sources, this paper documents significant heterogeneity in asset holdings, income, and income cyclicality across the distribution of Chilean households, as well as considerable income risk. Considering this evidence, we compare the transmission mechanisms between Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian models with search and matching (SAM) and sticky wage frictions (SW), and between one-liquid-asset (OA) and two-asset (TA) specifications. We propose a decomposition of consumption responses into direct, indirect, average, and cross-sectional effects. We show that the transmission mechanisms depend on the labor market setup: in SAM-OA the transmission operates through average and direct effects, while in SW-OA it is through cross-sectional effects. Assets also matter, the transmission in the SW-TA has stronger direct and average effects than SW-OA.

Autor: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/documento-de-trabajo-n-1004
Abstract:
Chile’s consumer loan market has strong concerns about high indebtedness levels and credit constraints. Using survey data, I show that banks have the borrowers of highest income and education and the lowest unemployment rates, while households with no access to debt have the lowest income and education and the highest unemployment risk. I then simulate the effects of counterfactual policies, such as increased borrower repayment capacity tests and better financial literacy. Repayment capacity testing reduces the number of borrowers, aggregate debt amounts, and debt risk across all lender types. Financial literacy program has even stronger effects, reducing the number of borrowers, aggregate debt amounts, and delinquency risk by more than half across all lender types. The financial literacy program achieves its effect by increasing the number of households with “No wish for debt,” while the repayment capacity test has the downside of increasing the number of households with “No access to debt.”

Autora: Rossana Costa
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/perfil-financiero-de-los-hogares-en-chile-rosanna-costa
Abstract:
Presentación de Rosanna Costa, Presidenta del Banco Central de Chile, efectuada en el Seminario “10° Aniversario Informe Deuda Morosa USS-Equifax”, organizado por la Facultad de Economía y Gobierno de la Universidad San Sebastián. Santiago. 7 de junio de 2023.

Autores: Antonio Lemus y Carlos Pulgar
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702023000100071
Abstract:
Recientes tendencias globales evidencian un alto nivel de endeudamiento de los hogares. En este documento se propone una metodología aplicable en aquellas economías que cuenten con una encuesta financiera de hogares y tasas de interés máximas establecidas por sus reguladores financieros. En la aplicación de la metodología propuesta se estudia el caso de Chile, país con los hogares de mayor endeudamiento en Latinoamérica. Los resultados sugieren que: (i) no existe un umbral de endeudamiento sostenible común a todos los hogares pues variables como el nivel de ingreso lo afectan; (ii) el umbral sostenible de endeudamiento aumenta con el nivel de ingreso de los hogares; (iii) la presencia de deuda hipotecaria incrementa significativamente los umbrales de endeudamiento; y (iv) más de un cuarto de los hogares chilenos estarían sobreendeudados.

Autor: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.6
Abstract:
Using survey data, I simulate the counterfactual impact of the Chilean policies during the pandemic on household consumption. I find that aggregate consumption would have fallen by 16.7 percent in the absence of public transfers and a quarantine flexibilization policy. Consumption would still fall by 10.2 percent with a quarantine flexibilization policy but without public transfers. Overall, with a quarantine flexibilization and all the public transfers combined, household consumption was still 6.2 percent below its pre-pandemic period. Relative to a scenario with quarantine flexibilization but without income transfers, I find that the income, tax, monetary policy, expenses measures were the most progressive policies and increased total consumption by 2.2 percent, while the debt deferral and pension withdrawals increased consumption by 0.7 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. The policies’ impact is highly heterogeneous, with 21.5 percent of the households increasing their individual consumption relative to its pre-pandemic level.

Autor: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/documento-de-trabajo-n-974
Abstract:
Using the Household Finance Survey (EFH), this work shows that the use of financial instruments—whether financial assets or insurance contracts—among Chilean households increased substantially since 2007. Complementing this analysis with the Family Expenditures Survey (EPF) between the years of 1987 and 2017, I show that the share of financial goods in expenditures dropped significantly, while the share of insurance products in consumption roughly doubled in this period. This indicates that financial goods are now much less expensive and the number of its users increased significantly. The use of the different insurance contracts (life and health, vehicles, home, and loan insurance) increased across all income levels. Overall, the widespread use of financial goods, insurance contracts, and purchase of durable goods among the Chilean population across all the income levels shows that the financial access to goods and services increased significantly over the last 35 years.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12570
Abstract:
This work studies the impact of the Social Explosion and COVID-19 crisis on the household sector in Chile. The Social Explosion in October 2019 represented a mass protest, much larger than similar events in other nations such as the yellow jackets. Using delinquency models calibrated with survey data, I show that household debt risk increased substantially after the Social Explosion across all income backgrounds but fell slightly with the COVID-19 pandemic due to the public policies implemented. The expansion of the public support policies in August 2020 decreased the debt risk to levels similar to before the two crises.

Autores: Carlos Madeira y Paula Margaretic
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100660
Abstract:
Household finance surveys are now common in many countries. However, the validity of the self-reported financial information is still understudied, especially for complex choices. Using a unique matched dataset between the Chilean Household Finance Survey and the banking system’s loan records, we find a positive effect of financial literacy on the accuracy of loan reporting. These findings are robust to the use of several proxies for financial literacy, such as the OECD INFE measure, the knowledge of the respondent’s personal pension account type, or the use of electronic means of payments. Using a nearest neighbor matching estimator, we confirm that the effect of financial literacy on the accuracy of loan reporting is causal even after controlling for several observable characteristics.

Autores:Carlos Madeira, Paula Margaretic, Felipe Martínez y Pedro Roje
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smab059
Abstract:
It is well known that self-reported financial information differs from administrative records. This article advances previous studies by using a unique matched representative sample of individual borrowers from the Chilean Household Finance Survey with administrative banking loan records. Our linked dataset allows us to test whether the differences between the two sources are due to the number of nonreported loans or to differences in the reported loan amounts. We show that discrepancies in debt ownership are larger when respondents have a mortgage and are not the highest income member of the family, when respondents have weak financial literacy and do not have confidence in the study, and when respondents live in complex or multigenerational households. However, borrowers report the maturity of their mortgage and installment loans quite accurately. Concerning loan amounts, differences between the two sources decrease with the financial literacy of the respondent. Finally, a simple form of rounding can go a long way towards explaining differences in the middle part of the debt amount and maturity distributions.

Autor: Damián Romero
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/documento-de-trabajo-n-950
Abstract:
This paper studies how household heterogeneity shapes the response to commodity price shocks. Using data from Chile and other emerging economies, we document that (i) low/high-income households spend relatively more on food/services, and (ii) more than 40 percent of the population is financially constrained. We build a multi-sector New Keynesian model for a small open economy with household heterogeneity and non-homothetic preferences. Non homothetic preferences dampen the effect of a commodity price shock by inducing a reallocation in the consumption basket towards more income-elastic goods: an economy with non-homothetic preferences generates aggregate responses 29 percent lower.

Autores: Carlos Delgado, Jorge Muñoz, Sandra Sepúlveda, Carmen Veloso y Rodrigo Fuentes
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2021.102385
Abstract:
In this article we analyze the impact of automatic bill payment (ABP) on household debt. We present a theoretical intertemporal consumption model that shows an inattention effect when individuals subscribe an ABP for their debts. This effect causes a higher level of indebtedness (beyond optimal) and, therefore, well-being loss. Furthermore, we empirically test this theory for Chile, an emerging economy. We estimate a Tobit-Probit conditional mixed process (CMP) model, using data from the Central Bank of Chile’s Household Financial Survey (HFS). The results confirm the existence of a positive and significant effect of the use of ABP on the financial burden of households.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102455
Abstract:
This study estimates the potential impact of a recent Financial Portability Law in Chile on the households’ mortgage refinancing probability. I show that mortgage refinancing is positively associated with financial education, liquidity needs, plus the value and timing for optimal refinancing. A counterfactual exercise shows the new legislation can substantially increase the refinancing probability and bring welfare gains, especially if it lowers the cognitive costs of the process. The refinancing probability may increase from 18% to 21.1% and create a welfare gain of 202 USD per borrower if only the pecuniary cost channel of the law is accounted for. However, the refinancing probability and welfare gains may increase to 29.2% and 902 USD, respectively, if the law can also significantly reduce the cognitive-education costs of refinancing. Welfare gains are larger for higher income households and owners of top valued homes. The refinancing gains could also boost the potential impact of monetary policy on consumption.

Autores:Rodrigo Cifuentes, Paula Margaretic y Trinidad Saavedra.
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2020.100677
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with measuring the financial vulnerability (FV) of households arising from consumer debt. Our case of application is Chile. Our main finding is that by applying a methodology that allows for households' heterogeneities and that accounts for contextual factors (like motives for asking for debt, exposure to shocks, family structure, holdings of assets and perspectives of future income), we better quantify the risks that financially vulnerable households may entail to the financial system.

Autores:Rodrigo Cifuentes y Felipe Martínez
Doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25420.28805
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the properties of different indicators of over-indebtedness of house- holds. In particular, we compare a group of indicators where one is based on households’ self-assessment and others on financial indicators, with the intent to find the most informative and comprehensive. We then study the determinants of over-indebtedness of households. We use data coming from the 2014 wave of the Survey of Household Finances in Chile. In the first part of the paper, we show that the self-reported measure proves to provide a more comprehensive view of household over-indebtedness than the one obtained from the financial indicators traditionally used for this purpose. In the second part, we estimate a bivariate probit with sample selection to analyze what factors are associated with the over-indebtedness condition. We find that income is an important factor for over-indebtedness, but it does not affect the probability of holding debt. In addition, we show that temporary workers are more prone to over-indebtedness than workers with permanent contracts. Finally, one of the most important results of our paper is that we show that an unexpected shock has a significant effect on both holding debt and reporting being over-indebted. Our results indicate that an appropriate evaluation of the over-indebted condition should consider more than traditionally used financial indicators. We also provide arguments in favor of a comprehensive credit register that would help credit suppliers to better manage credit risks.

Autores: Carlos Madeira y Paula Margaretic
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.05.005
Abstract:
The covariance risk of consumer loans is difficult to measure due to high heterogeneity. Using the Chilean Household Finance Survey I simulate the default conditions of heterogeneous households over distinct macro scenarios. I show that consumer loans have a high covariance beta relative to the stock market and bank assets. Banks’ loan portfolios have very different covariance betas, with some banks being prone to high risk during recessions. High income and older households have lower betas and help diversify banks’ portfolios. Households’ covariance risk increases the probability of being rejected for credit and has a negative impact on loan amounts.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.06.011
Abstract:
This study analyzes the impact of a legislation introduced in Chile in 2013, which gradually reduced the maximum legal interest rate for consumer loans from 54% to 36%. Using a representative sample of households that matches survey data and banking loan records, I compare consumers with risk-adjusted interest rates slightly above and slightly below the legal interest rate ceiling, two groups of similar characteristics but who are differently affected by the law. After accounting for both macroeconomic shocks and unobserved household heterogeneity, the results show that being above the interest rate cap reduces the probability of credit access by 8.7% on average. A counterfactual exercise shows that the new legislation excluded 9.7% of the borrowers from banking consumer loans. The law’s impact was strongest on the youngest, least educated and poorest families. Finally, I show that the new law affected all lenders of consumer loans in Chile, not just banks.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.03.005
Abstract:
Previous studies of consumer debt risk estimate low sensitivities to negative shocks, contradicting the historical data. This work proposes a heterogeneous agents model of household finances and credit risk. Families suffer labor income shocks and choose from a menu of loans contracts, defaulting on debt commitments when unable to finance minimum consumption standards. Using a variety of survey data I simulate household credit default for Chile over the last 20 years, replicating successfully the highs and lows of consumer delinquency. Some households are shown to be highly vulnerable to changes in interest rates, credit maturities and liquidity.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://repositoriodigital.bcentral.cl/xmlui/handle/20.500.12580/4866
Abstract:
Diversos estudios indican que la deuda de consumo explota debilidades psicológicas de las personas, como errores cognitivos o tentación (Laibson et al., 2000; Kahneman, 2011; Agarwal y Mazumder, 2013). Además, la deuda de consumo es compleja de entender y por eso está asociada a mayores tasas de no pago y morosidad (Alfaro y Gallardo, 2012), sobreendeudamiento y peores niveles de depresión en los deudores (Hojman et al., 2016). Algunos estudios encuentran que la morosidad de la deuda de consumo en la familias chilenas está asociada a riesgos de ingreso, desempleo y elevado endeudamiento del hogar (Madeira, 2014). Sin embargo, estudios anteriores no distinguen la morosidad que las familias tienen con distintos oferentes de crédito de consumo. Este tema tiene particular importancia en Chile, donde más de 60% de las familias tiene alguna deuda de consumo y esta corresponde a un monto casi igual a la deuda hipotecaria (Marinovic et al., 2011). Los bancos y casas comerciales son los principales oferentes de deuda de consumo en Chile (Marinovic et al., 2011), pero actúan con condiciones muy distintas.

Autores: Felipe Martínez y Francisca Uribe
Doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26071.11684
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the distribution of net wealth, its relationship with income and the factors that influence the household position within the wealth distribution in Chile. The research draws on microdata from the Survey of Household Finances 2014. We de.ne net wealth as the difference between assets and debts without considering pension wealth. The results show that wealth is unequally distributed among Chilean households. In fact, 73% of wealth is owned by the richest quintile. In addition, we show that to finance partial or totally the main residence with a subsidy has a significant effect on the probability of a household being above the lowest wealth quintile and that inheritances significantly increase the probability of belonging to a higher quintile of wealth. In terms of income we show that, even though it has a significant effect in the wealth position of a household, the relationship between income and wealth is weak.

Autores: Felipe Martínez y Francisca Uribe
Doi: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36570.44485
Abstract:
Este documento estudia la distribución de riqueza no previsional de los hogares chilenos utilizando la Encuesta Financiera de Hogares 2011-12. La riqueza neta se define como la diferencia entre activos y pasivos, excluyendo el capital mantenido en el fondo de pensión obligatorio. En primer lugar, analizamos la distribución de riqueza y sus características, luego estudiamos la relación entre la riqueza y el ingreso. Por último, estudiamos la distribución de los componentes de la riqueza. Los resultados muestran que el quintil más rico concentra alrededor del 72% de la riqueza y que cerca del 17% de los hogares posee una riqueza negativa. También encontramos que la riqueza muestra una distribución más desigual que el ingreso y que no existe una relación fuerte entre la riqueza y el ingreso. En relación a los componentes de la riqueza, mostramos que la vivienda es el principal activo de los hogares y que la deuda hipotecaria representa el 70% de la deuda total. Finalmente, mostramos que la vivienda principal es el activo mejor distribuido entre los hogares, en contraste a la gran concentración que muestran los activos financieros.

Autor: Cristian Pinto Gutiérrez
Doi: https://negocios.udd.cl/files/2016/04/El-Perfil-de-los-Hogares-m%C3%A1s-Endeudados-en-Chile-Paper-Version.pdf
Abstract:
Sobre la base de la última Encuesta Financiera de Hogares del Banco Central (2014), encontramos que 702.765 hogares urbanos destinan 30% o más de sus ingresos mensuales para pagar deudas de consumo e intereses. Este número equivale a un 30% de las familias chilenas con deudas no hipotecarias. Esta cifra es superior a la registrada en 2011, cuando 25% de los hogares se encontraban en esta situación de riesgo financiero. Los resultados además muestran que, de los 702.765 hogares endeudados, más de la mitad (361.302 hogares) destinan 50% o más de sus ingresos mensuales al pago de créditos no hipotecarios. La vulnerabilidad derivada de los créditos no hipotecarios se da con más fuerza entre los hogares de menores ingresos. Resultados muestran que 49% de los deudores en riesgo pertenece a hogares de los deciles 1 a 5. En contraste, solo 22% de los hogares en riesgo pertenece a los deciles de ingresos mensuales más altos.

Autores:Jaime Ruiz-Tagle y Francis Vella
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2465
Abstract:
This paper investigates the determinants of credit demand in the presence of borrowing constraints in a developing economy. We model the determinants of observed debt for Chilean households while accounting for selection bias and the endogeneity of their income and specific household assets. Using a novel Chilean dataset, we estimate the relationship between household characteristics and consumer and mortgage debt. We find substantial differences in the nature of these relationships across the types of debt. For example, we find that the income elasticity for consumer debt is greater than 1 whereas for mortgage debt it is not. The results suggest the increased availability of credit, combined with the aging of the Chilean population, is likely to drastically change the distribution and level of Chilean debt. These findings are particularly relevant for other developing economies currently experiencing rapid income and debt growth.

Autores: Carlos Madeira
Doi: https://repositoriodigital.bcentral.cl/xmlui/handle/20.500.12580/4841
Abstract:
La deuda de las familias es un activo que cada vez cobra mayor importancia en la economía, tanto en Chile como en los otros países en desarrollo (FMI, 2006) y en los países más desarrollados (Girouard et al., 2007). El último Informe de Estabilidad Financiera (2013) muestra que en Chile el crédito bancario hipotecario ha crecido a tasas reales de entre 8 y 16% desde 2006. El crédito bancario de consumo tuvo un crecimiento volátil, dado que aumentó a una tasa real de 20% en 2006-2007, bajó a tasas negativas durante la crisis de 2008-2009, y recuperó tasas reales cercanas al 10% desde 2010 hasta hoy. Este crecimiento en el endeudamiento de las familias tiene implicancias para el sistema financiero, sobre todo en el caso del crédito de consumo cuyo riesgo cíclico es significativo (Alfaro et al., 2011). Para el caso chileno, estudios previos han encontrado que la morosidad de los préstamos de consumo está significativamente asociada a altos niveles de carga financiera y riesgo de desempleo (Martínez et al., 2013), además de bajo ingreso y educación (Alfaro y Gallardo, 2012). Sin embargo, no se ha estudiado cómo cambia el impacto de estos factores de riesgo en el tiempo, lo que es una cuestión de gran importancia, dado que en países como Estados Unidos se ha detectado un aumento significativo en el incumplimiento de las familias a lo largo del tiempo (Gross y Souleles, 2002), hasta aquí sin explicación.

Autora: Marlene Nicole Virot Díaz
Doi: https://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/117540
Abstract:
La inquietud de identificar las variables que están asociadas al endeudamiento se remonta al año 2010, mientras estuve en el cargo de analista económico, en el INE, para la confección de las libretas de ingresos y gastos financieros de la VII EPF (Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares). En esos entonces, investigar las posibles fuentes de endeudamiento en los hogares, me inspiró seguir estudiando otras fuentes y bases de datos como es la EFH del Banco Central. Los estudios han demostrado el alza de los créditos tomados por los hogares en Chile, es una tendencia que se ha mostrado más allá de la última década, y se ha debido a diversos motivos, entre los otros al aumento de la diversidad de oferentes que ofrecen créditos a los hogares. Tal como lo menciona Chovar, Elgueta y Salgado (2010), que el hecho de que existan mayores entidades crediticias ha hecho que haya mayores niveles de endeudamiento, debido principalmente por esta causa. Lo anterior ha hecho que los hogares estén aumentando sus deudas, y también ha ido creciendo la razón de deuda sobre ingreso. Por eso el objetivo del desarrollo de este estudio del aumento en las tarjetas de crédito y cómo afecta al endeudamiento en los hogares chilenos. En el gráfico N°1, se observa un crecimiento casi exponencial de la tenencia de tarjetas de crédito financieras, lo que se podría suponer que el un comportamiento de las tarjetas de casas comerciales tendría un comportamiento similar.

Autores: Carlos Madeira, Felipe Martínez, Rodrigo Poblete y Rubén Poblete-Cazenave
Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100660
Abstract:
In this paper we study the determinants of financial risk of households. We estimate the probability of default of household using a probit model with two novel variables: (i) a Modified version of the Debt Service Ratio index (MDSR) and (ii) the probability of job layoff of the head of the household. Our new index allows us to include households without any transitory income in the analysis and solve the outliers' problem underlying the standard Debt Service Ratio (DSR). The probability of layoff allows us to incorporate the uncertainty with respect to the labor status and income of the household's head. In addition, we study the marginal probability of default for different income strata and age strata by levels of MDSR, conditional in others characteristics. We use micro-data from the Survey of Household Finances (SHF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Our estimates show that both, the MDSR and the probability of job layoff, are positively related with the probability of default. In fact, we found a monotonically increasing relationship between the probability of default and the MDSR. Our results allow us to assess the probability of default of the debt outstanding, and to project it under different scenarios.

Autores: Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, Leidy García y Álvaro Miranda
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/documento-de-trabajo-n-703
Abstract:
Durante los últimos años Chile ha experimentado una gran expansión en el acceso al crédito por parte de los hogares. Esto ha conducido a incrementos importantes del endeudamiento, en especial de los quintiles de ingreso más pobres. En este trabajo se analizan la evolución y los determinantes de los indicadores de endeudamiento y sobre endeudamiento en la última década, así como la robustez de los cambios, utilizando la Encuesta Financiera de Hogares y la Encuesta de Protección Social. El estudio también explora el rol de shocks y de las preferencias de los individuos en el sobre endeudamiento de los hogares. Del análisis se desprende que la participación en el endeudamiento crece con el ingreso. También se encuentra que los ratios de endeudamiento del primer quintil disminuyen significativamente cuando se considera la capacidad generadora de ingresos del hogar, con lo que se infiere que éste quintil podría estar menos endeudado que lo que muestran indicadores tradicionales. Por otro lado, se concluye que los efectos de los shocks (de salud, ingreso y requerimientos de gasto en educación) en el sobre endeudamiento son heterogéneos según las medidas de sobre endeudamiento que se utilice. A su vez, se evidencia que características del individuo como tener problemas de auto control, alta autoestima y conocimiento financiero se correlaciona con los niveles de endeudamiento del hogar.

Autores:Rodrigo Alfaro y Natalia Gallardo
Doi: 10.4067/S0718-88702012000100003
Abstract:
In this paper, we study household debt default behavior in Chile using survey data. Previous research in this area suggests financial and personal variables help estimate individual and group probabilities of default. We study mortgage and consumer default separately, as the default decisions and overall borrower behavior are different for each type of debt. Our study finds that income and income-related variables are the only significant and robust variables that explain default for both types of debt. Demographic or personal variables are affected by only one type of debt but not more. For example, the level of education is a factor that affects mortgage default, whereas the determinants of consumer debt default include the age of the household head, and the number of people within the household that contribute to the total family income. We find that the probability of default decreases as the family income increases, and that our estimations are consistent with other studies similar to ours.

Autores: Karla Flores, Alejandra Marinovic, José Miguel Matus y Nancy Silva
Doi: https://www.bcentral.cl/web/banco-central/contenido/-/detalle/estudio-economico-estadistico-n-81
Abstract:
Este artículo constituye el primer esfuerzo por proporcionar una caracterización extensiva de la deuda financiera de los hogares chilenos en la última década, que permita contribuir al debate con una evaluación del riesgo que este segmento conlleva para el sistema financiero chileno. Con este objetivo se caracterizan los distintos productos crediticios disponibles, los diversos oferentes del crédito y las principales características de los deudores en cada segmento, además de analizar la exposición de los agentes financieros a la deuda de los hogares, incluyendo una comparación de sus indicadores de riesgo de crédito.
La deuda de los hogares chilenos muestra un importante dinamismo en el periodo 1997-2008. Este se manifiesta en diversos aspectos, entre los cuales están los cambios en las condiciones crediticias, el ingreso de nuevos proveedores al sistema, modificaciones normativas y una fuerte correlación con el ciclo económico. Si bien el presente análisis apunta a que, por múltiples factores, el riesgo de este segmento crediticio es acotado, también pone en evidencia la relevancia de su constante monitoreo.

Autores: Marcelo Fuenzalida y Jaime Ruiz-Tagle
Doi: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12580/3765
Abstract:
Household indebtedness in Chile has received considerable attention in recent years because of the financial deepening process underway in the economy. Although various macroeconomic indicators show significant increases in the last decade, there are few tools for evaluating the real vulnerability of this sector from a financial stability perspective. One of these tools is stress testing using microeconomic information. Although households may face a variety of financial risks from a range of sources, the household sector is most sensitive to changes in household income, such as those caused by unemployment (Debelle, 2004a, 2004b). Moreover, household vulnerability to aggregate shocks that raise the unemployment rate will depend on both debt distribution and household characteristics. The heterogeneity of indebtedness levels and income uncertainty calls for microeconomic analysis.