At today’s Monetary Policy Meeting, the Board of the Central Bank of Chile decided to hold the monetary policy interest rate at 4.5%. The decision was adopted by the unanimous vote of its members.

The evolution of the international scenario continues to be marked by uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East. While oil futures contracts continue to point to a decline, the prolonged conflict increases the risk that prices will remain high. For now, the greatest impacts are concentrated on current inflation and its projections—driven by rising prices of oil and other commodities—which have intensified caution among central banks. On the economic activity front, the overall outlook shows no major changes, although with differences across regions.

In this context, compared to the previous meeting, global financial markets have shown a favorable performance. In part, this reflects a perception that the global economy will remain resilient. In most economies, including Chile, stock markets are picking up, and currencies have appreciated against the dollar. As for commodities, oil prices have settled above the levels forecast in the March Monetary Policy Report (IPoM). Meanwhile, copper prices rose, settling around US$6 per pound.

In February, the non-mining Imacec contracted by 0.3% annually (-0.3% monthly in its seasonally adjusted series). This figure was lower than what was consistent with the projection in the March IPoM, and the difference was attributed mainly to supply-side factors related to natural resources. As for spending, high-frequency indicators for the first quarter suggest that private consumption performed in line with expectations, while gross fixed capital formation slowed somewhat more than anticipated, particularly in its machinery and equipment component. In any case, the latest survey by the Capital Goods Corporation reported a significant increase in value of investment projects for the 2026–2029 period. In the labor market, the unemployment rate showed no change, and job creation remained sluggish.

In March, the annual change in total CPI was 2.8%, somewhat above projections in the last IPoM, reflecting the stronger increase in volatile prices other than energy. In fact, the annual increase in core inflation (3.4% in March) was in line with expectations. The Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) places inflation expectations two years ahead at 3%, while the Financial Traders Survey (EOF) does so at 3.2%.

The war in the Middle East has unfolded more adversely than was foreseen in the baseline scenario of the March IPoM, increasing the probability of more negative results for global activity and inflation. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, short-term inflation projections have increased. The Board will pay particular attention to factors that could contribute to increasing the pass-through and/or persistence of inflation.

The macroeconomic scenario remains subject to a greater-than-usual degree of uncertainty. Therefore, the Board estimates that constant assessment of alternative scenarios will be needed where the reactions of the local and world economies may configure inflationary pressures different from those expected and require changes in monetary policy. Thus, the future evolution of the MPR will be analyzed meeting by meeting based on how events unfold. The Board reaffirms that it will make every decision necessary to meet its objective of ensuring that projected inflation stands at 3% over a two-year horizon.

The minutes of this Monetary Policy Meeting will be published at 8:30 hours on Thursday, 7 May 2026. The next Monetary Policy Meeting will be held on Tuesday, 16 June 2026, and the statement thereof will be released at 18:00 hours of the same day.