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Working Papers N°425: Tipo de Cambio Nominal Chileno: Predicción en Base a Análisis Técnico

Autor: Ana María Abarca , Jorge Selaive C. , Felipe Alarcón


Description

This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the pesodollar parity. We explain the interpretations carried out by technical analysts of these indicators and perform forecasting analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to predict exchange rate returns at daily frequency. The predictive exercises are done using both in-sample and out-ofsample techniques, and report a robust forecasting ability for horizons within 7 weeks.

 
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