Description

The Board has agreed to publish an offprint entitled “Trend Growth: Medium-term Outlook and Analysis of Fundamentals” jointly with this year’s September Monetary Policy Report. The document summarizes a body of research conducted by our technical teams on the determinants of long-term economic growth. While studies on the topic have been carried out over many years, they have tended to be on a rather academic level. However, given an important slowdown in our economy’s growth rate in recent years, it seemed appropriate to make an additional effort to consolidate our analysis, in an area that is not only crucial to adequately meet our legally mandated objectives, but also of general interest to the country.

This document is the product of half a year of work reviewing, updating and consolidating studies performed at the Central Bank. As such, it incorporates incoming empirical evidence that has enhanced our knowledge of the Chilean economy. It analyzes in detail the medium-term trend growth for Chile over the horizon from 2017 to 2050, with special focus on the projection of GDP growth for the next ten years.