Co-authors: Lukas Boeckelmann, Laurent Pauwels
Affiliation: NYU Abu Dhabi
Date and time: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 13:30 (Santiago, GMT-03:00)
Location:

• Online meeting

Registration: seminarios@bcentral.cl

Abstract: We propose a filter that accounts for the effects of propagation through the global value chain and identifies the supply shocks underlying observed fluctuations. The filter, derived in a rich multi-country multi-sector model, is straightforward and utilizes readily available input-output data. It reveals a greater impact of idiosyncratic sector shocks and a lesser impact of global shocks than suggested by unfiltered data. Its closed-economy version significantly overestimates the importance of country shocks. Unlike unfiltered data, the identified idiosyncratic supply shocks align closely with what would be expected around such significant events as the Tohoku earthquake or the COVID-19 pandemic.