Speaker: Nicola Pavanini
Affiliation: Tilburg University, CEPR
Date and time: Wednesday, March 05, 202514:30 (Santiago, GMT-03:00)

Abstract: We quantify how central bank unconventional monetary policy, in the form of funding facilities, reduced the banking sector’s fragility in the euro area in 2014-2021. We estimate a structural model of imperfect competition in the banking sector that allows for multiple equilibria with bank runs, banks’ default and contagion, and central bank funding. Our framework incorporates demand and supply for insured and uninsured deposits, for loans to firms and households, and borrowers’ default. We use confidential granular data for the euro area banking sector, including information on banks’ borrowing from the European Central Bank (ECB). We document the presence of alternative equilibria with run-type features, but also that central bank interventions exerted a crucial role in containing this risk. Our counterfactuals show that, on average across equilibria, a 1 percentage point increase in the central bank lending rate leads to a 1.5 percentage points increase in banks’ default probability and a €22bn reduction in welfare, while increasing depositors’ surplus and lowering inflation.