Speaker: Alejandro Vicondoa
Affiliation: PUC
Date and time: Wednesday, May 28, 2025 14:30 (Santiago, GMT-04:00)
Location:

• Auditorio at the Central Bank of Chile, Morandé 115, second floor.
• Online meeting

Registration: seminarios@bcentral.cl

Abstract: We study how Chinese macroeconomic surprises affect global financial markets. Exploiting forecast errors around key data releases and a 30-minute window after the release, we show that positive industrial production (IP) surprises lead to immediate increases in Chinese and Asia-Pacific stock returns, global long-term yields, and prices of commodities highly demanded by China. A complementary identification strategy, which builds on different time-zones, confirms positive spillovers to international equities, with stronger effects in countries more exposed to Chinese trade. Our results highlight the role of both Hedging Premia and Growth Expectations in driving asset price comovement. The findings highlight China's growing influence in global markets and position it as a driver of the Global Financial Cycle.