| Abstract: |
This paper examines the growth and inflation forecasts contained
in the Monetary Policy Reports
(MPR) of the Central Bank of Chile, comparing them with private
forecast, the forecasts made by
the Bank during the previous decade, and the forecasts performed
by other Central Banks that
follow inflation targeting frameworks. It concludes that forecast
errors during the last few years
have been smaller than those committed by the Bank in the past,
and that although the errors in
forecasting growth are marginally larger than those committed
by private forecasters, they are
substantially smaller in the case of inflation. Moreover, the
performance of MPR forecasts is similar
to those of other Central Banks, in particular when considering
the different volatilities of GDP
growth and inflation across countries. Although the volatility
of MPR forecasts is comparable to
those of other Central Banks, in the case of growth the sign
of the change in the forecast has been
more persistent in the case of Chile. |
Banco Central de Chile