Banco Central de ChileRevista Economía Chilena
Published Issues
Volume 10 Nº 1 April 2007
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| Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case Of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries Pablo Pincheira B. / Álvaro García M. This paper evaluates the inflationary impact of an oil shock on several components of the consumer price index for several countries including Chile. All the countries in our sample display a significant response in headline inflation, energy inflation and non-core inflation. We also find a significant response in core inflation for all countries other than the U.S and France. Chile’s inflationary response is one of the highest and most persistent in the sample. Indeed, Chile’s response in headline, total and non-core inflation is above average. Notwithstanding the above, we notice that the size and persistence of inflation responses are rather moderate. |
| Monetary Policy Surprises and the Yield Curve in Chile Mauricio Larraín E. This paper estimates the impact of a monetary policy shock on the nominal and real yield curve in Chile during the period 2002-2007. Using information from the forward curve to obtain the non anticipated component of the policy action, we find that the effect of a monetary surprise on the nominal yield curve is positive and very significant, while the effect on the real yield curve is positive but numerically lower than the nominal case and not always significant. The response of the yield curves to the anticipated component of the policy change is found to be not significant. We also report that the response of the nominal curve in Chile to a monetary surprise is lower than in the U.S. The results are robust to using information from the Survey of Economic Expectations to obtain an alternative measure of monetary shock. |
| Trimmed Indexes as Measures of Trend Imacec Fabián Gredig U. The aim of this work is to elaborate a variety of indexes of economic activity tendency from the original disaggregated series that compose the monthly index of economic activity, Imacec. Following similar statistical techniques to the ones used to elaborate core inflation series, it is hoped that the treatment of the information in the economic sector series will be useful to create easy to understand and calculate in real time indexes that allow opportune evaluation of trend economic activity, according to the ex post Imacec releases. Monitoring the smoothed indexes that exclude the five most volatile sectors of the general index, the one that excludes the extreme 5 percent of the monthly variations, and the one associated to the first principal component of the 12-month variation of the disaggregated sectors may be useful to diagnose the actual impulse of economic activity. Each of these indexes has better performance than the alternative benchmark series and has relevant information about the future path of the actual Imacec. |
| Stylized Facts of the International Business Cycle Relevant for the Chilean Economy Carlos J. García T. / Patricio Jaramillo G. / Jorge Selaive C. This paper analyzes macroeconomic regularities in the main economic blocks (i.e., the U.S., Europe, and Japan) and describes the interaction between key variables of these groups and their relationship with relevant variables for the Chilean economy such as commodities prices, capital flows and sovereign spreads. Among the main findings are (i) U.S. GDP growth leads by two quarters the growth in Europe, Japan, and Latin America; (ii) high synchronization in both inflationary processes and monetary policies is observed; (iii) industrialized countries’ GDP growth leads movements in copper and oil prices, while the Chinese economy presents a high contemporaneous correlation with copper prices; (iv) the U.S. real exchange rate leads the price of commodities, and (v) higher capital flows to emerging markets and lower sovereign spreads lead economic growth in industrialized economies. |
| Research Notes |
| Modelación de Precios Internacionales de Combustibles Relevantes para la Economía Chilena Carlos J. García J. / Patricio Jaramillo G |
| Premios de Mercado y Ciclos de Política Monetaria en EEUU. Liliana Cavieres O. / Hermann González B. / Felipe Jaque S. |
| Books review |
| The End of Powerty de Jeffery Sachs Francisco A. Gallego Y. |
| The White Man's Burden de William Easterly J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. |
| Publications Review |
| Catastro de publicaciones recientes y resúmenes de artículos seleccionados |