Banco Central de ChileRevista Economía Chilena
Published Issues
Volume 7 Nº 1 April 2004
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| Un Análisis del Comportamiento del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile César Calderón M. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate path for Chile using a simple model for the 1977.I – 2003.III period. Using cointegration techniques, we find a cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate (RER) and its fundamentals —that is, sectoral productivity differentials, the ratio of net foreign assets to GDP, the terms of trade and public absorption. Among our main results, we have: (a) the estimates of the RER equation are qualitatively similar whenever we used the RER index TCR-5 or TCR total (which includes emerging economies in the basket of countries). (b) The real depreciation of the Chilean peso in the 1980s is mainly attributed to a greater net external indebtness in the country and to lower levels of public spending during periods of fiscal adjustment. (c) The real appreciation of the peso during 1990-97 is explained by an improvement in the net foreign asset position of Chile and growth in the relative productivity of the traded sector. (d) The model predicts poorly the movements in the 1998-2002 period. The only forces that predict a depreciation of the Chilean peso during this period are the decline in the terms of trade and the net foreign asset position. |
| Desempleo y Consumo en Chile Claudio Soto G. This article presents an empirical study of the effect of unemployment on aggregate consumption of nondurable goods in Chile for 1990-2002. Using an error-correction model, the results show that unemployment lags have a negative and statistically significant sort-run impact on consumption growth. Three hypotheses that relate unemployment and consumption are also analyzed. First, it is shown that unemployment is not a good predictor of future disposable income. Therefore, it does not signal changes in permanent income. Moreover, the results do not support the implications of the certainty-equivalence version of the permanent income hypothesis. Second, there is evidence that unemployment affects income volatility. Hence, the relationship between unemployment and consumption could be explained by the precautionary savings motive. However, for this mechanism to be consistent with the fact that unemployment has a negative impact on consumption growth, the effect of uncertainty on consumption must be persistent. Finally, there is also evidence that unemployment could affect consumption through its effect on income distribution. However, the latter result is not robust. |
| Función de Ingresos de los Hogares Chilenos: Ciclo de vida y Persistencia de Shocks Paulina Granados Z. Statistical information about households, coming from the National Statistics Bureau’s supplementary income survey for 1990-1998 (approximately 30,000 homes annually) reveals that the expected component of Chilean households’ income function is significantly determined by the effects of age, generational cohort, and time, along with a set of idiosyncratic household characteristics. To determine the dynamics of the random component, the process that supports the average residue by generation is estimated, which seems to be best described by either a moving average process of first and second order, or an autoregressive process of first order. However, separating by educational level, only the income functions of low-educationhead households follow these processes, accepting white noise for higher-education households, which accounts for the influence of less educated households in the results for the full sample. |
| Research Notes |
| Medidas Alternativas de Inflación Subyacente M. Carolina Grünwald N. ; Enrique Orellana C. |
| Medición de la Minería en el Imacec y el Índice del INE Jorge Cantallopts A. |
| Comparación de la Variación Industrial de las Cuentas Nacionales con un Indicador de Mercado Francisco Ruiz A. ; Felipe Stanger V. |
| Books review |
| When all Else Fails: Government as the Ultimate Risk Manager de David A. Moss Edgardo Barandiarán M. The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates de Richard Lyons Jorge Selaive C. |
| Publications Review |
| Catastro de publicaciones recientes y resúmenes de artículos seleccionados |