Banco Central de ChileRevista Economía Chilena
Published Issues
Volume 2 Nº 3 Dicember 1999
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| Articles |
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| Current Account and Transitory Deviations of Terms of Trade and Export Volumes: Chile 1985-1999. Jaime Guajardo M. / Guillermo Le Fort V. To limit the risks of a sudden stop in external financing that would jeopardize intertemporal consumption smoothing, the current account deficit should be limited to sustainable levels. However, the volatility of the terms of trade and some export volumes cause difficulties in assessing a sustainable current account level. This paper provides a "trend indicator" for the current account based on "normalized" external prices and export volumes. Thus the exercise allows evaluating, in a simple and timely fashion, whether the deficit level is sustainable and, if not, demand adjustment measures are needed to correct it. |
| Forecast of Short Run Nominal Interest Rates in Chile: Complex vs. Naive Models. Franco Parisi F. This paper explores the explanatory and predictive capability of one-factor theoretical interest rate models and a naive AR(1) model for the short-term interest rate in Chile. The theoretical models outperform the naive alternative: the CKLS model correctly predicts 70% of the time the direction of change in interest rates while the naive model does it only 50% of the time. Moreover, the forecast error for the interest rate is in the range of 0.21% to 0.43% in the theoretical models versus a range of 0.67 to 0.76% in the case of the AR(1) models. Interest rates also display mean reversion. |
| E-money: some reflections on regulatory issues and its monetary effects. Carlos Budnevich L. / Sergio Lehmann B. This paper analyzes regulatory issues related to electronic money, in particular the integrity of the payments system, consumer protection, and the effects on the overall economy. The paper develops a money demand model that shows how the introduction of electronic money affects the composition of money aggregates, causing higher intermediation and hence a larger money multiplier. Sterilization of the latter effect reduces seignorage collected by the central bank. The paper presents estimates for the loss of seignorage by the Central Bank of Chile for different scenarios regarding the degree of diffusion of electronic money. However the introduction of electronic money has important social benefits derived from lower transaction costs and improved efficiency and stability of the payments system. |
| Research Notes |
| Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the international experience por Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin y Adam S. Posen Pablo García S Macroeconomía, Comercio y Finanzas para Reformar las Reformas en América Latina por Ricardo Ffrench-Davis Vittorio Corbo L. |
| Publications Review |